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May 20, 2008

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Oregon
Obama 58
Clinton 42
Obama takes Multnomah County 72-28

I'd love to see Obama win by 20%+ statewide, but I suspect it'll be just a few points short of that.

Kentucky
Clinton 64
Obama 36

Sad news just breaking now: CNN is reporting that Ted Kennedy has been diagnosed with a malignant brain tumor. Thanks to Brian Rich for the tip.

I'm just hoping Obama can effectively put this away tonight (we all know Hillary is going to hang around to the convention, a la Jerry Brown back in '92). Oregon should be enough to give him the pledged delegate majority.

Predictions:

Oregon
Obama - 59
Clinton - 41

Portland, Eugene and Corvallis all go big for Obama.

Kentucky
Clinton - 57
Obama - 43

Obama will close a bit in Kentucky as people realize the inevitable.

I wish I could be as optimistic as W. Lane Startin

My guess:

Or:
Obama 54
Clinton 46

KY:
Obama 35
Clinton 65

However, I predict that by the end of this week, Obama will have enough Super delegates to put him over the top.

And Hillary staying in the race could be good, if she keeps up the unity talk.

I

Lane,

I hear turnout in KY is light, so you may be right.

You write: "we all know Hillary is going to hang around to the convention, a la Jerry Brown back in '92"

Do we? Do you mean she will literally fight this to the convention floor rather than concede by the end of June (or sooner, once the FL/MI question is settled and the last primaries are held)? I sure hope not. Forcing a close first-ballot vote during the last week of August won't do much to get us moving with a truly united front on McCain.

If Oregon is closer than we think, she may try that.

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