Vote Democratic today

It's primary election day in Idaho. Polls are open from 8 a.m to 8 p.m. If you're a Democrat thinking about crossing over, read this and this first.

In Ada County, Democrats will gather to watch election results down at The Rose Room. (More here.) In Shoshone, Lincoln County Democrats will host a pot luck primary party from 6 to 8 tonight at the Governor's Mansion B&B.

If you know of any other election night events, please note 'em in the comments. Also, for today's prognosticating, join me in trying to guess these two things: Jim Risch's percentage in the eight-way GOP Senate primary (I'll say 58%) and the percentage that Ron Paul will take in Idaho's GOP presidential primary (27%).

Comments

[Adam Graham]

Wow, I'll guess 65% for Risch. 27% would be big, but I'm thinking more 23% for Ron Paul, but I think that between Paul and Uncommitted McCain could end up under 70%.

[Julie in Boise]

Adam, I literally guessed 23% for Paul as I wrote that, then decided to get cheeky and ratchet it up a bit. So we'll see ...

As for Risch, I'm figuring Scott Syme gets the lion's share of the anyone-but-Risch vote, but I think he'll also get a sizable tally of people who are voting FOR him because of his military service.

I predict now that Risch's lack of service will be a real liability in his race against Larry LaRocco this fall. It hasn't been an issue in their previous state-level match-ups, but it will be on the federal level, especially with war dragging on in Iraq. The simple fact is that very few Idahoans know that while LaRocco served his country as an Army captain, Risch somehow avoided service during the Vietnam era. Of course, that also speaks to the air of privilege that Risch has carried throughout his career and that he's continuing now with his refusal to directly debate his GOP opponents.

Whatever he gets tonight, this is Jim Risch's high-water moment for 2008, so I hope he enjoys it. Between his lack of military cred and the fact that LaRocco would enter the Senate with seniority (due to his two House terms) AND in the majority party, Idahoans will soon realize that LaRocco is a far better choice. Yes, it will be close, but Idahoans will ultimately elect the Senator who works for the job - not one who believes it's his birthright.

[Irwin Horowitz]

Julie,

How about adding a third prediction for today's election: How much does Nancy Merrill's write-in candidacy get against Mike Moyle here in District 14. My prediction is Merrill - 32%

As for predictions on the other two, I say:
Risch - 60%
Paul - 25%

[Julie in Boise]

OK, Irwin. Write-in campaigns are tough and I'm afraid this one will be no exception. But I'll give Nancy 35%.

Meanwhile, we need to be sure the Democratic Party is ready to take on Moyle in the fall. That ought to be THE marquee race for November if Moyle squeaks through this as we expect.

I'm reminded via an email that District 14 Dems have a write-in candidate, too: Glida Bothwell needs write-in votes to run against Raul Labrador this fall. Be sure to spell her name right! G-L-I-D-A

[Sisyphus]

Risch: 73%
Paul: 18%
Merrill: 44%

[Liz]

Thanks for sending the message out about Glida Bothwell. I've been GOTVing for Glida this morning and it was encouraging to see her name in your blog. We put out a few signs yesterday in the pouring rain so had to stop early. Raul Labrador in 14B is another Mike Moyle type so it'd be great to get someone more moderate in that seat too. It's been frustrating because the republican race is so interesting with the senate and 14A, all the Democrats are so tempted to cross over. And Henry Kulczyk's name is still on the ballot! Should help Stan Bastian.

Paul: 30%
Risch: 60%
Bastian: 40%
Merrill: 45%
Glida Bothwell, District 14 position B: 55 votes

[Irwin Horowitz]

Hey Liz,

Just so you know I did some phone calling around my precinct yesterday and I hope to scrounge out about 10-12 votes for Glida as a result. I know there will be at least one :-).

[Julie in Boise]

Great work for Glida, Liz and Irwin! Any reports on turnout over there?

[Julie in Boise]

Just got this in an email from IDP communications chief Chuck Oxley, with a few more details and props for the Dem festivities tonight:

"IDP election central will be at the Rose Room, 718 W Idaho St. Doors open at 6 p.m. All Treasure Valley TV stations will be there.
No-host bar, food refreshments sponsored by the LaRocco for Senate campaign and the Ada County Democrats.

"Please be sure to thank the Rose Room operator, Jo Fryberger (she will be at the bar), the caterer, “Rebecca” (sorry, no last name – she’ll be the one with the food!) and DJ MacDaddy. These are all GREAT Democrats and are donating the vast majority of the expenses, if not all of them. You can help keeps our costs low by using these services in the future:

"Rose Room Rental: 381-0483
Rebecca’s Catering: 549-1655
MacDaddy Music 761-6333"

Right on! Sounds like a party. RSR will likely be down there circa 8 to 10 to snap some pix and enjoy some great Dem camaraderie. After all, tonight marks the start of the general election.

[Tara Rowe]

I went to vote around 9:30 this morning. First of all, my polling place is different than it has been over the past four years. Hopefully that doesn't cause too much confusion. I was the only person in the large gym voting--I noticed my elderly neighbor leaving when I pulled up. Pretty cool 'we the people' stickers this time around, though. Just not a stellar turnout.