There was a lot of head-scratching last Friday night when Daily Kos released a poll showing Bill Sali an improbable 11 points ahead of Walt Minnick. Sure, Sali is an incumbent in a traditionally GOP district. He's also one of the most extreme and least effective legislators in Congress, a man who can't get his FEC filings straight, and someone who barely won his seat last time around.
Well, the Minnick campaign has released its own internal poll (by the respected Harstad Strategic Research) showing that Minnick is, in fact, running about 5 points ahead of Sali (
53 percent to 48 percent 43 to 38 percent) and that Sali is hugely unpopular among even Republican voters. The survey was taken among 405 likely voters September 9-11, the week after the Republican convention.
Of course, the only poll that really matters is the one that concludes at 8 p.m. on November 4.