Here's where the campaign is at now:
The latest Zogby tracking poll from New Hampshire shows John Kerry (30%) up 7 points and Howard Dean (22%) down 3 percent this week, with Wes Clark flat at 14% and 17% still undecided. But today's tracking results were polled Tuesday-Thursday, in the heat of the brouhaha over Dean's Iowa speech. It'll be interesting to see where the polls head over the weekend, once last night's debate and Howard and Judy Dean's self-effacing TV interview (see below) with Diane Sawyer are factored in.
We Democrats - meaning those of you with primaries between now and February 3 - can make like the Iowans, play it safe, and annoint Kerry or Edwards as the most electable candidate. Or we can be brave and vote for Howard Dean.
If we go with Kerry, we can expect a replay of the 2000 campaign. We may win, we may not; we may end up with another contested election that will likely be thrown, once again, to W. Very few new people will vote, not because there aren't real differences between Bush and Kerry/Edwards, but because the senators sided with Bush on the war until Dean made it possible to do otherwise, and they didn't do enough to beat back other elements of our country's slide toward a nation run by big business, neocons, and the religious right.
I am for Dean because he is the only electable candidate who was willing to stand up to the worst, most radical president of our lifetimes before it became safe to do so.
I am for Dean because he has a record of leadership and innovation on health care, education, and family services. He offers a template of 12 years of success in Vermont on these matters. And I am for Dean because he tells the truth: we cannot fund these domestic priorities without a total repeal of the Bush tax cuts.
Whither Wes Clark in this scenario? Clark is attracting some support and lots of celebrity cred (McGovern, Mike Moore and Madonna, oh my!) but his lateness to the game, his lack of governing experience, and his past props to Bush are major weaknesses. (Never mind Karl Rove endlessly replaying Dean's Iowa rant tape; I'm much more afraid of the tapes of Clark saying what a great job Bush was doing.) Clark may still wind up the wild card in all this, but I think many people will realize that despite his military resume, he's an even riskier choice than Dean.
Picture this: Millions of Americans yawning over a Kerry-Bush matchup, with results remarkably similar to 2000's. Or an electorate, genuinely energized by Dean's passion, with substantial numbers of people who are voting for the first tie because a viable, experienced candidate is finally speaking truth to power.
Maybe our country is just too fickle and will discard the visionary candidacy of a genuinely good man based on media spin and distortions.
Or maybe not. I guess we'll find out these next few weeks.
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