This just in: A poll of 400 Idahoans showed that among men, Bush leads Kerry 70 percent to 13 percent. Women are much more evenly split, 41 percent for Bush and 35 percent for Kerry, close to the plus-or-minus 5 percent error margin. Sorry, I can't find a weblink.
How to explain Idaho men's overwhelming loyalty to a failed president whose suitability for office is now questioned by more than half of all Americans? Simple. My headline aside, I don't buy it. Democrats comprise at least 30 to 35 percent of this state's voters, and I challenge you to find any Idaho Democratic man who will vote for Bush. Add in the fact many independents and moderate Republicans - male and female - have had it with Bush, and something seems waaaaay off with these numbers, at least among those with the Y chromosome. (It's interesting to note that among women, nearly a quarter remain undecided or are maybe in the Nader or none-of-the-above camp. I'm guessing well over half will break for Kerry.)
Another possible explanation: The poll was conducted for KTVB-TV and KIDO Radio by Greg Smith and Associates. Smith is a former staff member for U.S. Sen. Larry Craig and now does talk radio in Boise in addition to his pollster gig. I'd love to hear how his firm framed the poll question. Can you say "One ... two ... three ... PUSH"?
It's true Kerry wasn't the top choice among male Dems in Idaho before he and the DNC staged their primary coup. Idaho was rock-solid Howard Dean country right up until Iowa; many Idahoans all over the political spectrum loved Dean's fiscal conservativism, his libertarian stands on socal issues, his support of gun-owners' rights, his fierce opposition to the war, and his criticism of Democrats who failed to stand up to the Bush steamroller. By contrast, despite (or perhaps because of) his home in Sun Valley, Kerry is seen by many Idahoans as the quintessential big-government Eastern liberal. We also distrust people who have a hard time simply saying what they believe, and what they stand for, though Kerry is getting a little better at that (and we Deaniacs will egg him on).
Idaho men may like to play macho to pollsters, especialy ones based in our state who formerly worked for an uber-Republican like Craig. But in the privacy of the polling booth November 2, bearing in mind the messes Bush has made of the war on terrorism, health care, education, and the economy, many more than 13 percent of Idaho men will decide Kerry is the better choice.
Can you cite your source on where you found your data? I've been looking for the results of this poll online but haven't found them anywhere official yet.
Furthermore, www.electoral-vote.com is reporting the poll at 55 Bush, 25 Kerry, 6 Nader, a more realistic set of numbers for Idaho.
Let me know the source of your data if you can. I run Race2004, a site that tracks statewide polling data. I'd like to get this poll added to our listings.
Posted by: Stephen | June 26, 2004 at 12:15 AM
Stephen,
The poll was in the Idaho Statesman's Local section last week on the day I made my post. Send me your fax number and I'll see if I still have the paper here. I looked for it in the online paper, but couldn't find it.
The numbers you cite are close to what the poll did when it took both men and women into account.
Posted by: Julie in Idaho | June 29, 2004 at 12:15 PM