Last chance to call the races

(This thread is now closed to comments. Thanks to everyone who posted their predictions. JF)

Post your best guesses - with percentages - for these races: Idaho governor, LT gov, 1st CD, 2nd CD, and superintendent of public instruction. Don't worry about including third-party candidates.

Bonus question: How many seats do the Dems pick up in the U.S. House?

You can predict other stuff, too - ballot measures, for instance; or total Dem pickups for the Idaho Legislature; or the winner of your favorite races elsewhere. Do whatever you like. But the five races above will be the ones that "count" for the cheap but cool political schwag I'll send to whoever comes the closest.

I'll be doing GOTV all day tomorrow and probably won't blog. But there will be an open thread and photo gallery here Tuesday night, starting about 8:30 p.m. Mountain, live from the Owyhee Plaza in beautiful downtown Boise. Please make Red State Rebels part of your Election Night plans!

Comments

[Jessica]

What time will it close? You just want winner-loser, or percentage of win-loss?

[Mary Rohlfing]

Governator: Jerry Brady by 2%
LT Gov: Jim R beats Larry R by 9%
CD1: Grant by 4%
CD2: Jimmy H squeaks with 1300 votes. Conservationists pull their heads out of their asses and realize Simpson's an environmental disaster, finally. Mormons realize authenticity matters more than living in Blackfoot, or does he?
Super: Lunacy by 3%. Serious ickness.
We lose Prop 1 by 8%
We win Prop 2 by 1%
We lose HJR2 (is that the gay marriage number?) by 15%
Not sure how many House seats, enough to control, though.

[Julie in Boise]

Mary, Thank you for being brave and going first. Point of clarification:On "We win Prop 2 by 1%," that means Prop 2 LOSES, am I right?

Man, it would be great if the tsunami picks up Jim. I won't rule it out. We can dream big.

[The Nickel-Plated JA]

In ballot-order even... but I am pulling a lot of these numbers out of the ether...

CD1: Grant by 11%
CD2: Simpson by 40%

Governor: Brady by 4%
Lt. Governor: Risch by 3%
Controller: Twilegar by 5%
AG: Wasden by 18%
SPI: Jones by 3%

HJR2: Fails by 5%
SJR107: Fails by 23%
Prop1: Fails by 3%
Prop2: Fails by 18%
Advisory: No by 15%

It is worth noting that we are one of the few states where a Constitutional Amendment that makes it to the ballot only requires a simple majority *groan*.

Bonus question: 28.

[Mary E. Rohlfing]

Yes, Prop 2 loses. I guess I should have made that clearer. D'oh! This is fun. I think it's going to be tough for Jim, but I do believe he's going to do better than expected and with the anger brewing out there, who knows? Maybe all da bums hit the road!

[Junky8]

CD1: Grant +2% :)
CD2: Simpson +23% :(
Gov: Otter +3% :(
Lt Gov: Reich +15% :(
SIPE: Jones +4% :)
Cont: Jackie +8% :)
Treas: Crane +25% :(
AG: Wasden +19% :(
US House: Dems 222 seats
US Senate: Dems 49+Lieberman
Idaho House: Dems +3
Idaho Senate: No Change
Ada County Comm: Woods +10%, Tillman +8%
Prop 1: NO +3% :(
Prop 2: NO +6% :)
HJR2: Pass +15% :(
10 Commandments: NO +14%
Advisory: NO +5% :)

I think thats everything, well basically.

[Lori Steiniker]

Grant by 8%
Brady by 4%
Risch by 9%
Twilegar by 6%
Wasden by 18%
Jones by 5%

HJR2: Passes 14%
SJR107: Passes 6%
Prop1: Passes 2%
Prop2: Fails 12%
Advisory: No 6%

Idaho Senate:
District 9--Edmondson by 6%
and next time we´ll replace Denney & C Edmondsen

[twilfrid]

CD2: Believe it. Jim Hansen by 1300 votes. We have science.

[Jessica]

I hope so twil. Jim Hansen, Jana Jones, Jerry Brady and Larry Grant NEED to win.

[Mary E. Rohlfing]

OK. I think I am confident about this. I say the Dems will pick up 22 seats. Yeah, that's it.
And I guess I didn't weigh-in on Jackie's race or Bob's. I think Jackie T will win by 4% and Bob will lose by 26%. Too bad, but I am feeling the Saints will go marching in for Wasden in this race.

[mary e. rohlfing]

And before you ask, Julie, I do mean in the House of Reps, not here in Idaho. As for the Senate (again, nationally) I think that by Thursday morning, we'll control that too. As you say, Julie, "dream big."

[IDvandal]

CD1: Sali by 3%
CD2: Simpson by 26%

Governor: Otter by 2%
Lt. Governor: Risch by 10%
Controller: Jones by 5%
AG: Wasden by 28%
SPI: Jones by 2%

HJR2: Passes with 59%
Prop1: Passes with 54%
Prop2: Fails with 45%
Advisory: Yes with 60%

Idaho State House of Reps: D's pick up 2-3 seats
Idaho State Senate: no change (although a couple may swap party, such as Brandt and Marley's old seats)

D’s take US House of Reps with 223 seats
R’s hold on to US Senate 51-49 (49 includes Liberman)

[Julie Fanselow]

Mary, if Idaho Dems picked up 22 seats, THAT would be something. Give us a few more cycles ...!

Thanks for the email nudge.

[Julie Fanselow]

Lord, IDVandal, I hope you are wrong on the Sali and D Jones picks. Andy Hedden-Nicely and Dave Olson better hope so, too, as far as Sali goes.

[Mary E. Rohlfing]

Indeed, it would be something, IDVandal, who I'm guessing in Johnny McG? A bit more pessimistic than am I. I am worried about CD1, though. Sali will get out the whacks, no doubt about it, and I'm not sure the West Ada Rs are smart enough not to vote for him either. Always wanted to go precinct-by-precinct through the primary results to see if that hunch about Ada is sound. Grant gets the D vote, but does he turn enough Rs?
You think Simpson is still that strong over in your neck of the woods? I am not seeing much support for him sign-wise from here to Fairfield. That surprised me as I traveled to Glitz River Valley Friday-Saturday. When I went to Poky a few weeks ago, I was equally surprised how little visual support seemed to be there for Simpson.
Well, if he wins, he'll be hamstrung and CIEDRA will mercifully be DOA unless he attaches it as a rider between now and Jan. I suspect he's being advised to do just that by ICL.

[Irwin Horowitz]

Here are my predictions:

CD1: Grant-51%;Sali-48%
CD2: Simpson-59%;Hansen-39%
Gov: Otter-52%;Brady-47%
LGov: Risch-55%;LaRocco-44%
AG: Wasden-72%;Wallace-28%
Cont: Twileger-56%;Jones-44%
SIPE: Jones-58%;Luna-42%
Treas: Crane-68%;Faux-32%

For the propositions:
Prop 1: No-53%; Yes-47%
Prop 2: No-59%; Yes-41%
HJR2: No-52%; Yes-48%

ID Dems gain 5 seats in House, 2 seats in Senate

US Dems gain 39 seats in House and 5 seats in Senate (including Leiberman).

[Data Guy]

Mary,
According to the vote totals Sali received 25.8% in the primary and his Ada County percentage was 27.3%. His worst precincts in Ada County, from 13% to 20% of the vote, were primarily in the area from Capital High School and into Eagle. If the Grant forces have been trolling for cross over votes that is where they would find many of them.

[Elizabeth]

This feels like blowing out the candles on my birthday cake and immediately telling everyone my wish, but here goes.....
This is (mostly) based on my own equation that gives the Rs 3 free points! Keep your fingers crossed and find folks to help with GOTV.

Brady +2.6
Grant +1.6
Prop1 Yes +2.0
Prop2 No +5
HJR2 No + 0.8
Risch +7
Jana +2

Hansen by 857 votes.

Karl Rove will call for a recount on Wednesday, Mike Simpson on Thursday.

[Jessica]

Ok-

State and Congress:

Brady 52%
Risch 54%
J. Jones 52%
Jones 54%
Wasden 69%
Grant 51%
Simpson 58%

Issues:

Prop 1 No 53%
Prop 2 No 55%
HJR 2 Yes 57%
SJ 107 Yes ?%
Advisory Yes 60%

Local-Pocatello

District 29:

Bilyeu (D) 51%
Ruchti (D) 52%
Andrus (R) 51%

District 30:

Smith (D) 62%
Other two are unopposed and held by Dems!

County:

Ghan (D)-Comm.
Parker (R)-Comm.
Barker (D)-Treasurer
Frasure (R)-Assessor
Wittrock (R)-Clerk

National:

Pick up 6 Senate seats
Pick up AT LEAST 25 House seats

[Michael Devitt]

As much as I would like to believe that the people of this great state will vote for a candidate and not a letter, these are my predictions. Given Sali's high unfavorable numbers, and the high number of undecideds it is tough to see how Grant loses. Brady SHOULD win, but Canyon County and the CDA region will deliver enough to balance Brady's narrow victories in Ada, the Magic Valley, and Eastern Idaho. Otter's support is pretty thin in these regions, but the negative ads about tax increases will resonate with these voters.

Otter by 2%
Grant by 4%
Luna by 2%
D.Jones by 3%
Simpson by 16%
Risch by 9%
Wasden by 15%

Woods (Ada Co.)by 2.5%

Prop 1: -7%
Prop 2: -2%
HJR2: +17%

Nationally, Dems pick up 19 seats in the House, and 4 in the Senate. Karl Rove knows his stuff, and has plenty of tricks up his sleeze, I mean sleeve.

[demdiva]

Brady 4%
Risch 10%
Grant 7%
Simpson 40%
Luna 3%
Oh how I wish Idahoans would see through Simpson's crap and Luna's inadequacies, but I don't think they're quite ready yet.
I might consider coming back to my beloved home state if we pick up some of these seats...Until then, proud to live in a blue state now!

[Tara A. Rowe]

State

Grant 53%
Simpson 63%
Otter 59%
LaRocco 52%
Luna 54%
Crane 67%
Wasden 71%
Twileger 51%

Local (Pocatello)

Andersen 54%
Bilyeu 64% (easily)
Ruchti 55%
Smith 75%

Home (Cassia County)

NONE are opposed...this is ridiculous!!!!

I would like to think differently of CD2...

[Lori S]

The thought of Lunatic being my boss gives me the chills....I´ll have to move to a different state if that happens.

[Elizabeth]

for the bonus question(s)

26 seats gained in the House
6 seats in the Senate

Steve Kimball will suck enough votes away from Sharon to elect Paul Woods to Ada County Commission

one interesting note from listening to am talk radio (my ears are bleeding)
seems like more than a few conservatives are so disenchanted that they are not even going to the polls

I've heard quite a few stories like this, there have even been several letters to the editor expressing this position....wild

Lori S, please stay in Idaho. Perhaps there are other jobs, hopefully you won't have to make that choice.