The Idaho 1st District race between Walt Minnick and Bill Sali is making national news this 3rd of July, with one of the nation's top political prognosticators upgrading the race and a top GOP operative calling the incumbent only a "slight favorite."
Minnick is one of a whopping 27 Democratic candidates whose races moved up in the latest round of the much-watched rankings by Charlie Cook and The Cook Political Report (subscription only). Cook House Editor David Wasserman now ranks the seat "Likely Republican" rather than "Solid Republican."
Even more impressive, conservative commentator Robert Novak and Timothy P. Carney - writing in the Evans-Novak Political Report - have a harsh assessment of Bill Sali's chances:
Idaho-1: Congressional Republicans need to worry about every corner of the map this year, from Cuban districts in Miami all the way to Alaska, and Idaho’s 1st District is no exception.
Freshman Rep. Bill Sali (R) faces the double threat of an antagonistic relationship with his party and a well-funded Democratic challenger. Businessman Walt Minnick (D), who ran for Senate in 1996, had outraised Sali $711,000 to $495,000 as of May 7, with twice as much cash on hand. The other leading Democrat in the primary contest, Larry Grant, who lost to Sali two years ago, stepped aside and endorsed Minnick.
Sali’s problems with his own party are widespread. His House colleague, Rep. Mike Simpson (R), reportedly once threatened to throw him out the window. His former floor leader in Boise once said of him, “That idiot is just an absolute idiot.” Sali won a contentious, crowded primary in 2006, and then barely pulled out the general election to replace former Rep. Butch Otter (R), now governor of Idaho.
As an indicator of his Republican problem, Sali’s low-profile primary challenger this year, Matthew Salisbury (R), garnered 40% of the primary vote while spending less than $50,000. Sali will benefit from the McCain-Obama battle atop the ticket, but if Minnick can win over anti-Sali Republicans, this will be another GOP loss. Until we see evidence of that, Sali looks like the slight favorite. Leaning Republican Retention.
"Slight favorite." Not so good for an incumbent legislator in one of the nation's most Republican districts, is it? But that's Bill Sali for you, or, as this blogger put it, "he's not even that popular in Idaho."
Also, don't forget to check out Walt Minnick as the host of the 4 to 7 p.m. drive-time slot on KBOI today, either on 670 AM in the Treasure Valley or streaming live on the 'net.