New poll shows Minnick ahead of Sali

There was a lot of head-scratching last Friday night when Daily Kos released a poll showing Bill Sali an improbable 11 points ahead of Walt Minnick. Sure, Sali is an incumbent in a traditionally GOP district. He's also one of the most extreme and least effective legislators in Congress, a man who can't get his FEC filings straight, and someone who barely won his seat last time around.

Well, the Minnick campaign has released its own internal poll (by the respected Harstad Strategic Research) showing that Minnick is, in fact, running about 5 points ahead of Sali (53 percent to 48 percent 43 to 38 percent) and that Sali is hugely unpopular among even Republican voters. The survey was taken among 405 likely voters September 9-11, the week after the Republican convention.

Of course, the only poll that really matters is the one that concludes at 8 p.m. on November 4.

Comments

[David Erin Anthony]

Good morning Idaho! From back here in the Keystone State of Pennsylvania, I watch with great excitement the two races. Do not let up now. Idaho is going to need leadership in both chambers of congress under the Obama Administration. I am living in a heavily Republican rural Pennsylvania right now and I have been amazed at how many people who I talk to profess to be Republicans but are voting for the Democratic candidates this year. Good luck to all!!!!

[Julie in Boise]

David, good to hear from you. We are working hard!

How does it feel to live in an actual swing state?

[David Erin Anthony]

Doing well...knocking on doors and talking to people. Our county party office just opened a few weeks ago but seems to be doing well. The Obama signs are flying out of there...now need to focus on our local races as we have a great lineup of men and women running for Congress and the State Assembly. It's getting there...this year will definitely be one for the record books I think!!

[Julie in Boise]

There's an interesting new poll out from Greenberg et al, showing that while McCain still holds a strong lead in rural areas of battleground states, he's only 3% ahead on the economy.

http://www.gqrr.com/index.php?ID=2246

I really believe that many voters - rural, small town, suburban, and urban - will decide that Obama and the Democrats will be far better stewards of middle-class interests in this shaky economy than the GOP.

[Peggy G.]

In reseaching Idaho for a possible vacation destination and in a search for fellow Democrats, I found your blog. I decided to research Walt Minnick and I found an article written by Jeffrey St. Clair in the counterpunch political newsletter. In this article Mr. Minnick is criticized for his poor environmental record as the CEO of TJ International.
"Craig Gehrke, of course, is a merely deserving scapegoat for the real forces that asphyxiate the Wilderness Society's agenda: money and politics. At the center of this dispiriting nexus is Cecil Andrus; and, most importantly, Walter Minnick, CEO of the Boise-based timber company TJ International."
He is also a proponent of oil drilling.
As a progressive blogger, are you supporting Mr. Minnick for Congress?

[Bernard]

You apparently found the article by Mr. St. Clair that was written in 1995 and it's ancient fiction. St. Clair's allegations in that story were beyond the pale, and the only relevance to your vacation research that I can see is you just read a 13-year old article from Fantasyland.

[David Erin Anthony]

If I may weigh in on that and point out something else....years ago Walt was for Right to work. As part of Boise Central Labor we continued to show Walt how this idea was hurting the Idahoan worker in terms of pay, benefits and family lifestyles. He has since become a champion to repeal that dreaded piece of legislation.

[Julie in Boise]

Ah, Jeffrey St. Clair ... the same guy who ripped off the name of this blog for his new book. Frankly, I am not a fan.

Peggy, I don't know where you live, but Democrats in Idaho are not the same as Democrats in more progressive states. The Democratic brand was beaten up badly here in the 1990s, and our current candidates have to fight against the perceptions that they're all loony enviros who will take away your guns. That's how we got Bill Sali, one of the most extreme members of Congress, who beat a moderate, much-more qualified Democrat two years ago.

Walt Minnick is a moderate. He believes in both protection for and jobs using our great natural resources. Like Barack Obama, he would accept limited drilling as long as cleaner, alternative energy sources are given precedence.

Does Red State Rebels (the five-year-old blog, not St. Clair's recent book) support Walt Minnick's run for Congress? Given the choice of him or his opponent Bill Sali, who recently said we are not consuming enough energy? Are you kidding me?

[David Erin Anthony]

Julie....when exactly did the "Honorable Representative from Idaho's 1st District" make that comment? Does a audio or video copy exist?

[Julie in Boise]

I read it in a post at Mountain Goat Report last week. A snip:

"On Tuesday the House of Representatives debated and voted on the Comprehensive American Energy Security and Consumer Protection Act which passed 236 to 189 with both Idaho Congressmen Mike Simpson and Bill Sali joining a majority of Republicans voting against the bill. Among other things, the legislation allows for some new off-shore drilling, invests in alternative and renewable energy sources and repeals tax subsidies for large oil companies.

"Prior to voting on the bill, Congressman Sali stood on the House floor explaining why he was opposing the bill. During his speech Sali, amazingly enough, admitted that he was proud of the amount of energy Americans consume, insinuating that we aren't using enough."

Click my name for the whole thing.